Observation 14735140

dm43OBJECT BTNORAD 68481GFSKlabel: with-signalqueue rank 2

the fitted corridor, the path the matched filter scored, with its half width shaded. the same pass geometry at zero frequency offset. the commanded receive frequency, where a Doppler-corrected capture would sit. The gap between the first two is the measurement. Scale: 79.8 Hz per pixel across, 0.174 seconds per pixel down, drawn one screen pixel to one measured pixel.

The black and white points open at a fixed pair, not one fitted to this image. Across the 25 committed waterfalls the noise floor runs from 0.20 to 0.38, so on most observations the ramp starts well below the first real sample and a weak pass reads flat until the black point is raised toward the floor.

Reviewer note

deterministicUNGROUNDED_NUMBER · a number not in the evidence packet

Ranked 2 with score 0.850, flagged MODEL_LABEL_DISAGREE. The network label is with-signal and the model probability is 0.000. The corridor sits 1995 Hz from the catalogue centre, 5.0 ppm, with a half width of 2000 Hz; the curved fit scores 0.4 against 0.3 for a vertical line. Peak elevation was 15.6 degrees at 0.50 of the pass.

A generated note was refused for UNGROUNDED_NUMBER, so the deterministic summary is what is shown. The refusal is the measurement, not a fallback that failed quietly.

Check a claim about this observation

The grounding checker from the pipeline, ported to TypeScript and running here. Edit the sentence, or start from one of the drafts below, and the verdict changes as you type. Nothing is sent anywhere: the whole rule set is in the page.

329 of 700 characters

GROUNDED

Every number in this sentence is a token of the packet below, every code and label in it is this observation’s, and no permission rule fired. That is all the checker claims: the sentence is consistent with what was measured, not that the measurement is right.

The evidence packet this is checked against, exactly as the model was shown it
observation_id             : 14735140
ground_station_id          : 5078
ground_station_name        : dm43
norad_catalogue_id         : 68481
transmitter_mode           : GFSK
receiver_frequency_hz      : 401577500
network_label              : with-signal
pass_duration_s            : 269
max_elevation_deg          : 15.6
closest_approach_fraction  : 0.50
fitted_offset_hz           : 1995
fitted_offset_ppm          : 5.0
corridor_half_width_hz     : 2000
sigma_curved               : 0.4
sigma_vertical             : 0.3
hz_per_pixel               : 79.8
seconds_per_pixel          : 0.17
axis_derivation            : axis_ticks_ocr
axis_derivation_confidence : 0.94
model_probability          : 0.000
ensemble_uncertainty       : 0.0013
flat_row_fraction          : 0.00
queue_rank                 : 2
queue_score                : 0.850
queue_reason_codes         : MODEL_LABEL_DISAGREE
offset_at_bound            : false

The closed world. A number that is not a token of this text is not grounded, which is why 6490 is refused although those digits appear inside 436490000: containment is not membership, and a transposed offset passed the old check for exactly that reason.

The pass

The same propagation that produced the corridor above, drawn from the station's point of view and from orbit. Elevation is measured from the WGS-84 geodetic normal, which is the reference the corridor was scored against.

Sky track

Azimuth clockwise from true north, elevation from the horizon at the rim to the zenith at the centre. The open circle is the rise, the square is the set, and the filled mark is closest approach at 15.6°.

NESW3060

Ground track

The subsatellite point, the station as a cross, and the satellite’s horizon circle at closest approach from 595 km. There is no basemap: this console ships no coastline data and will not draw one it cannot cite.

1020304050-150-140-130-120-110-100

Elevation and Doppler against time

The same pass on a time axis. Two stacked panels rather than one panel with two vertical scales, because a twin-axis chart lets the author choose where two curves appear to cross. This window spans closest approach, and the Doppler zero crossing lands on the sample where elevation peaks, because both happen at the same instant.

0306090ELEVATION, DEG+5k0−5kDOPPLER, HZ067135202269SECONDS FROM THE START OF THE RECORDING
Every row is a field of the exported geometry, not a figure read off the plots.
QuantityValueWhere it comes from
Maximum elevation15.604°Highest sample of the propagated pass, from the geodetic normal
Azimuth at closest approach265.87°Clockwise from true north
Slant range at closest approach1583.7 kmStation to satellite, the minimum over the pass
Closest approach, as a fraction of the pass0.50100 is the start of the recording window, 1 the end
Samples propagated512An error count above zero means the orbit model refused part of the window, and the track is drawn only where it did not

The fit

Frequency offset
1995 Hz
5.0 ppm of the catalogue downlink
Corridor half width
2000 Hz
25.1 pixels at this image scale
Max elevation
15.6°
pass geometry from the TLE that was current at capture
Closest approach
50%
through the observation window, where the Doppler curve is steepest
Detection strength against corridor offset-4.5-2.10.4-20.0-10.0010.020.0corridor offset, kHzsigma0.35σ at 1,995 Hz
Matched-filter sigma at every whole-pixel offset the fit was allowed, subsampled for transport with the peak and both endpoints always kept. The peak is the fitted offset: the same function produces both, so they cannot disagree. The curve is what makes the fit a measurement rather than a choice, because a corridor that were merely near the trace would give a flat sweep with no peak to find. Scored at 503 offsets, 128 plotted.

The fitted curve is the predicted Doppler curve shifted by the fitted frequency offset, which is the path the matched filter scored.

The predicted curve is the same shape at zero offset, so the gap between them is the measurement.

Time runs bottom to top: the first row is the end of the pass.

The frequency axis runs against the Doppler sign.

Why it is in the queue

The composite score and the criteria it met, from the queue receipt.

FieldValueWhat it is
Rank2inside the review budget of 50
Composite score0.849634rank-normalised blend of model disagreement, uncertainty and physics
Model p(signal)0.000001calibrated probability from the shipped image and corridor arm
Ensemble spread0.001341disagreement between seeds; a proxy for how sure the arm is
Flat rows0.0000fraction of the waterfall with no luminance variation
Episode5078:68481:7station, satellite and orbital revolution: the unit the interval is grouped on
ConflicttrueModel disagrees with label

Precedent

The five nearest passes in the snapshot under the Granite embedding of a text card built from this pass's numbers.

Two conditions: any station, and then a condition that excludes this station and this satellite so a neighbour cannot be a near-duplicate of the query.

The measured agreement is on the precedent page, and under the second condition it does not beat chance.

ConditionNeighbourStationSatellite (NORAD)StartNetwork label
Any station147351735078645572026-08-09T21:26:38Zwith-signal
147351765078984572026-08-09T23:51:15Zwith-signal
147351605078604752026-08-09T17:30:02Zwith-signal
147358845078327852026-08-09T22:34:59Zwith-signal
147351295078684202026-08-09T22:26:17Zwith-signal
Other station, other satellite1474173540983302026-08-09T23:12:45Zwith-signal
147363944743676832026-08-09T16:58:20Zwith-signal
147364805017676832026-08-09T21:13:00Zwithout-signal
147364774814676832026-08-09T21:12:23Zwith-signal
147375614923690152026-08-09T19:18:51Zwith-signal
This pass carries the network label with-signal, station 5078, satellite OBJECT BT (NORAD 68481). Counting how many neighbours match that label is one draw and settles nothing on its own. The neighbours link to the network rather than to this console, because most of them are outside the shipped set and the console carries no imagery for them.

Provenance

Enough to fetch the original and check it.

FieldValue
Sourcenetwork.satnogs.org/observations/14735140
Original waterfall SHA-25604d5447cd9279070238306f3aac6edc3756ec0b4af1e5462de587f487067d93b
Window2026-08-09T22:50:02Z to 2026-08-09T22:54:31Z
Receive frequency401,577,500 Hz
Axis derivationread off the spectrogram's own tick labels (confidence 0.94)
Displayed imageunweighted mean of the R, G and B channels, 8-bit